Power System Frequency Prediction Method Considering New Energy Access Ratio and Frequency Support Capacity

With the growing demand for electricity around the world, the energy crisis and environmental issues are becoming increasingly severe. Therefore, it is imperative to develop a new type of power system primarily based on new energy generation. However, as the rate at which renewable energy is being utilized increases, synchronous units are gradually replaced, the rotational moment of inertia of the power system decreases, the frequency regulation ability diminishes, and the frequency stability issue under perturbation events becomes more and more prominent. At the same time, the current frequency dynamic analysis method is difficult to meet the frequency stability analysis under the high proportion of new energy scenarios. Therefore, this paper considers the ability of new energy to actively carry out frequency support, based on the regression decision tree model, establishes a power system frequency prediction model based on the new energy penetration rate, the proportion of new energy units actively involved in frequency control, the new energy unit control parameters, and other key factors, and accurately predicts the maximum frequency deviation and the steady-state frequency deviation of the power system after power perturbation, while the importance of each control parameter is analyzed. And simulations are carried out in the test system to ascertain the efficacy of the introduced method.