Comparative analysis of methods for reconstruction of individualized external exposure doses to population living in a radioactively contaminated territory

A comparative analysis of the applied methods for reconstructing individualized external exposure doses for population living in an area contaminated with radionuclides as a result of the Chernobyl accident showed that conservative approaches to dose reconstruction have a negative impact on the prognosis of the latter in general. The proposed new method for reconstructing individualized external exposure doses is methodologically consistent with its analogues, but at the same time it allows taking into account not only the direct dose-forming factor (contaminated density), but also indirect factors in the aggregate (occupation, gender and age), which, in turn, makes it possible to reconstruct individualized external exposure doses for each year under research with minimal error. Correlation analysis showed that there is a high correlation between the model estimates of the new method and the data of individual dosimetric control (Spearman's correlation coefficient varies from 0,77 to 0,85; p<0,05), while the average dose estimation error using the new method ~ 4 times lower than that of its analogues.