Regional Impacts Poorly Constrained by Climate Sensitivity
Abstract Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the latest‐generation models have high effective climate sensitivities (EffCS). It has been argued these “hot” models are unrealistic and should therefore be excluded from analyses of climate change impacts. Whether this would improve regional impact assessments, or make them worse, is unclear. Here we show there is no universal relationship between EffCS and projected changes in a number of important climatic drivers of regional impacts. Analyzing heavy rainfall events, meteorological drought, and fire weather in different regions, we find little or no significant correlation with EffCS for most regions and climatic drivers. Even when a correlation is found, internal variability and processes unrelated to EffCS have similar effects on projected changes in the climatic drivers as EffCS. Model selection based solely on EffCS appears to be unjustified and may neglect realistic impacts, leading to an underestimation of climate risks.
Authors
- Ranjini Swaminathan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5853-2673)
- Chris Jones (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7141-9285)
- Richard Betts (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4929-0307)
- Jeremy Walton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7372-178X)
- Andrew G. Turner (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0642-6876)
- Chantelle Burton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0201-5727)
- Christopher Reyer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1067-1492)
- Matthias Mengel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6724-9685)
- Klaus Zimmermann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3994-2057)
- Jacob Schewe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9455-4159)
- Colin Jones (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7221-8127)
- Katja Weigel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6133-7801)
Institutions
- Met Office (GB)
- Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SE)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- University of Bremen (DE)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e. V. (DLR) (DE)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB)
- National Centre for Earth Observation (GB)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- University of Reading (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Earth s Future
- Published
- 2024-12-01
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024ef004901
- Citations
- 14
- Primary Topic
- Climate variability and models
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.96
Funders
- UK Research and Innovation
- Sight Research UK
- Met Office
- Natural Environment Research Council