Application of the numerical modelling for the interpretation of the piezometric data on earth dams in the view of uncertainties specific for dam operation

Abstract Dam monitoring is an effective method of the management of risk associated with dam operation. Interpretation of monitoring data is an essential part of the monitoring procedure. The main purpose of data interpretation in dams is the well-timed detection of hazardous conditions. Since numerical modelling such as finite element modelling method (FEM) is based on physical equations, it can provide results that can be converted into diagnosis. The application of the numerical modelling for monitoring data interpretation in earth dams in the view of uncertainties specific for dam operation and monitoring is studied with the purpose of obtaining the interpretation results that will be practically valuable for intervention planning. In this study the application of one of the techniques of numerical model calibration for the series of alternative diagnoses for real dam monitoring data interpretation is presented. For reducing the uncertainty, the probabilistic estimations of the alternative diagnoses were inferred with the use of Bayes’ rule. The technique applied provides a visually clear representation of the possible diagnosis for the practical decision making.