Modeling of the energy security of the country in the context of sustainable development: the case of Ukraine

Abstract Ukraine’s energy industry experienced organizational and territorial challenges, resulting in a coal scarcity and a need for stable and balanced development. Ukraine’s unified energy system, which includes a variety of power plants, plays an important role in supplying electricity to other nations. The authors recommend using the multidimensionality principle and a systemic approach to examine the country’s energy security, as well as the development of a model based on energy product manufacturing under Ukraine’s tough economic and political conditions. Such a theory will show the peculiarities of the production of energy products, which is characterized by a vast collection of qualities and factors that influence it. The factors (or variables) studied in the article are classified as endogenous and exogenous. The E-Views application was used to model the country’s energy security in terms of energy product production. The outcomes of the modeling revealed the presence of long-term endogenous and exogenous factors influencing the total volume of energy product production; the existence of a strong relationship between the volume of energy product production and imports, total energy supply, and total final consumption; and opportunities for significant growth in domestic energy product production in the future. The model’s practical significance has been demonstrated through reduced reliance on imports, diversification of energy sources, energy independence, energy availability, collaboration in the field of energy security, economic growth, and environmental and sustainable development. The article concentrates the authors’ attention on Ukraine’s energy sector, which is critical to the country’s economy and supply to the EU.