Modelling and forecasting the production potential of renewable energy sources in the context of sustainable development

Abstract The Ukrainian energy sector is experiencing a crisis. The necessity for sustainable development in Ukraine’s regions, as well as energy independence, stems from the destruction of infrastructure and the consequences of dependency on Russian resources. The current trend is to develop renewable energy sources at the regional level, resulting in a more decentralized model. The article examines the empirical relationship between the causality of production, the potential of renewable energy, and the factors that influence the country’s economic growth, such as export, electricity, total final consumption, and total energy supply. The authors propose applying the system approach principle to the study of renewable energy source production in order to ensure the country’s energy security, contribute to increasing competitiveness on the international market, and develop a model based on the production of renewable energy sources and waste in Ukraine’s difficult economic development conditions. To model the production of renewable energy sources, which is one of the vectors ensuring energy security, the authors used the software product E-Views, which allows for making informed decisions based on statistical analysis and forecasting. During the research process, the authors demonstrated that more effective achievement of sustainable development goals will be facilitated by the formation of a reasonable approach to renewable energy production and the development of a sustainable development policy for Ukraine’s regions, which should have significant differences based on the region’s specifics.