ARIMA-Based Forecasting of Livestock and Poultry: Annual Volume of Animals Slaughtered/Dressed by Animal type and Provinces

Livestock and poultry are essential for human survival and development, as they convert low-quality feed into high-quality protein and nutrients that support human diets. With the global population growing and the demand for animal-based food increasing, especially in developing countries, it is important to use livestock to improve food system efficiency and promote sustainability. In the Philippines, the livestock industry is a key part of agriculture, contributing about 18.23% of the gross output value, with hogs and chickens being the most consumed animals. Northern Mindanao is one of the leading regions in livestock production, particularly in meat production. Although there is data on meat production trends and regional differences, there is a lack of detailed forecasting for livestock and poultry production by province and animal type. This study aims to fill this gap by using time series analysis and forecasting methods, specifically the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to analyze the annual volume of livestock and poultry slaughtered or dressed by animal type and province in the Philippines. The research provides valuable predictions on production trends, helping stakeholders make better decisions, improve production planning, find growth opportunities, and address challenges in the livestock and poultry sector. The results of this study will support informed decision making, ensure a stable supply chain, and aid the ongoing development of the country's livestock industry.