A New Method for Calculating Temperature-Controlled Load Electricity Consumption Based on Sensitive Temperature Detection

With the rapid growth of the tertiary industry and residential electricity consumption, the impact of temperature-sensitive loads on power system has significantly increased. This paper proposes a new method for calculating the proportion of temperature-sensitive electricity consumption. Firstly, the Pearson correlation coefficient is used to analyze the correlation between electricity consumption in cold and hot periods throughout the year and the average temperature, highest temperature, and lowest temperature. Subsequently, based on the electricity consumption data in different periods and corresponding temperature data, the average electricity consumption for each degree of temperature is calculated for cold and hot periods. The Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) inflection point detection method is applied to identify the corresponding sensitive temperature, and calculate the baseline electricity consumption corresponding to high and low temperatures on weekdays and weekends in cold and hot periods. Finally, the sum of the temperature-induced electricity consumption on weekdays and weekends is calculated, and the percentage of temperature-controlled loads is determined by comparing it with the total annual electricity consumption. The effectiveness of the proposed calculation model is verified using actual electricity consumption data from a province in southern China in 2023.