Prediction of mung bean production using machine learning algorithms

Agriculture is the backbone of the Ethiopian economy. It plays a significant role in the growth of the national economy. Among these, mung bean production takes the highest level of income for most smallholder farmers in all regions of Ethiopia who cultivate mung bean crops. Therefore, this study aims to predict mung bean production using a machine learning algorithm. For this study, the datasets were collected from the Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia database. A total of 10273 instances were used for the experiment. Python machine learning tool was used to conduct the experiment and build an optimal model. To achieve the objective of this study, different experiments were conducted using Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Xgboosting algorithms. In addition, the predictive performances of the classifiers are evaluated and compared using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and confusion matrix. Experimental result shows that the Xgboosting classifiers algorithm achieves the best performance with 98.65 % test accuracy and 99.8 % train accuracy. As a result, the Xgboosting classifier was selected for implementing the model to predict mung bean production. The findings of this study show that the main determinant factors for mung bean production include Meher season, use of extension program, fertilizer used, and fertilizer type. Therefore, the outcome of this research is essential to support the decision-making process of experts and it will enable them take corrective measures on the factors affecting mung bean production.