[Carbon Emission Trajectory and Eco-environment Effects in the Aksu River Basin Based on Agriculture-town-ecological Space Changes].

Due to the expansion of artificial oases in these areas, scientific assessment of the carbon emission and eco-environment effects caused by changes in agriculture, towns, and ecological space is of great significance in grasping the carbon emission characteristics of various land use types, formulating land use emission reduction strategies, promoting the construction of ecological civilization, and optimizing the spatial pattern of the national territory. Based on land use data and socio-economic data, taking the inland river basin of the arid zone of the Xinjiang-Aksu River Basin as the research object, the carbon emission coefficient method was used to measure land-use carbon emissions, and spatial autocorrelation analysis and standard deviation ellipse were used to analyze the spatial evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from agriculture-town-ecological space in the Aksu River Basin. Based on the eco-environment quality index and ecological contribution rate, the impact of the agriculture-town-ecological space transformation on the eco-environment effects in the Aksu River Basin was explored. The results showed that： ① The scale of agricultural space and town space continued to rise, while the overall scale of ecological space was shrinking. The carbon source provided by agricultural space and town space showed a continuous upward trend, while the carbon sink provided by ecological space showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, with an overall downward trend. ② There was a positive spatial correlation between the net carbon emissions and the carbon emissions provided by the agriculture-town-ecological space. The center of gravity of carbon emissions in the basin generally moved to the southwest except for the ecological space, whereas the other space and net carbon emissions moved to the southeast. ③ The eco-environment quality index in the basin increased first and then decreased and generally showed a downward trend. From 1990 to 2000, the ecological environment quality improved overall； from 2000 to 2010, it deteriorated severely； and from 2010 to 2020, it deteriorated slowly.