Assessing the sustainability of Pacific walrus harvest in a changing environment

Abstract Harvest sustainability is a primary goal of wildlife management and conservation, and in a changing world, it is increasingly important to consider environmental drivers of population dynamics alongside harvest in cohesive management plans. This is particularly pertinent for harvested species that acutely experience effects of climate change. The Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ), a crucial subsistence resource for Indigenous communities, is simultaneously subject to rapid habitat loss associated with diminishing sea ice and an increasing anthropogenic footprint in the Arctic. We developed a theta‐logistic population modeling‐management framework to evaluate various harvest scenarios combined with 4 potential climate and disturbance scenarios (ranging from optimistic to pessimistic, based largely on sea ice projections from general circulation models) to simulate Pacific walrus population dynamics to the end of the twenty‐first century, focusing on the independent‐aged female subset of the population. We considered 2 types of harvest strategies: 1) state‐dependent harvest scenarios wherein we calculated harvest as a percentage of the population and updated annual harvests at set intervals as the population was reassessed, and 2) annually consistent harvest scenarios wherein annual harvest levels remain consistent into the future. All climate and disturbance scenarios indicated declines of varying severity in Pacific walrus abundance to the end of the twenty‐first century, even in the absence of harvest. However, we found that a state‐dependent annual harvest of 1.23% of the independent‐aged female subset of the population (e.g., 1,280 independent‐aged females harvested in 2020, similar to contemporary harvest levels) met our criterion for sustainability under all climate and disturbance scenarios, considering a medium risk tolerance level of 25%. This indicates that the present rate of Pacific walrus harvest is sustainable and will continue to be—provided the population is assessed at regular intervals and harvest is adapted to match changes in population dynamics. Our simulations indicate that a sustainable annually‐consistent harvest is also possible but only at low levels if the population declines as expected. Applying a constant annual harvest of 1,280 independent‐aged females failed to meet our criterion for sustainability under 3 of the 4 climate and disturbance scenarios we evaluated and had a higher probability of quasi‐extinction than an equivalent state‐dependent harvest scenario (1.23%). We highlight the importance of state‐dependent management strategies and suggest our modeling framework is useful for managing harvest sustainability in a changing climate.