High fire severity and frequency threaten the persistence of a widespread obligate-seeder Banksia in south-eastern Australia

Context Obligate-seeding woody plants with long reproductive maturity periods and no soil seed banks are threatened with decline as climate change drives more frequent and severe fires, such as the extensive 2019–2020 wildfires in south-eastern Australia. Aims This study aimed to investigate the effects of fire intervals and severity on the persistence of one such species, Banksia cunninghamii (Hairpin Banksia), in temperate forests. Methods We measured post-fire seedling recruitment of B. cunninghamii at 25 sites in Victoria, burned at various severities in the 2019–2020 wildfires and with differing prior fire intervals. A Bayesian framework was used to model the relationship between seedling numbers, fire severity and fire interval. A spatial analysis compared a species distribution model for B. cunninghamii with fire severity and fire intervals. Key results There was a low chance of B. cunninghamii recruitment (<25%) at sites that either had burned eucalypt canopies or a preceding fire interval of less than 12 years. Sixty-seven percent of its distribution in the south-east of the state of Victoria was mapped as burned at high severity (burned eucalypt canopies) between 1998 and 2020, or burned at shorter than 12 year intervals between 1960 and 2020, although some B. cunninghamii populations will have persisted due to the patchiness of past burns. Conclusions Banksia cunninghamii is vulnerable to local extinctions in the wildfire-affected areas if fires occur again before plants reach maturity, or if high fire severity destroys seeds. Implications More frequent and severe wildfires mean that burn planning needs to consider the reproductive cycles of serotinous obligate-seeding plants.