Gazing at long-term linkages between agricultural land use and population growth in India: an inverted “U-shape” relationship

Abstract This study investigates the linkages between changes in agricultural land use and population growth in India. We have employed long-term time series and a panel dataset of 1869 samples (267 districts × 7 time points from 1961 to 2021) to determine this. We theorize that there is an inverted “U-shape” relationship between changes in population growth and agricultural land. Our findings suggest a positive impact of population growth on the change in cultivated land. However, this relationship was not static during 1961–2021. We found a two-stage split relationship with a breakpoint in 1981. Prior to the 1980s, there was a 12% expansion in cultivated land in response to a unit increase in population growth. During the post-1980s, with a unit decline in population growth, there was a 5% reduction in cultivated land. The findings were reaffirmed through several robustness checks: analyses using alternative outcome variables, alternative break points in a segmented regression model, and spatial modeling. From a policy perspective, this study advances the need for the reduction of population growth rate in high-fertility states and the adoption of superior and green technology for agricultural intensification and diversification to stop cropland expansion at the cost of environmental sustainability.