MODELLING AND FORECASTING WATER PRODUCTIVITY IN MOROCCO BY MEANS OF STOCHASTIC VASICEK MODEL

We study a stochastic homogeneous Vasicek diffusion process, and determine its characteristics, such as the analytical expression and the trend functions. By using the maximum likelihood approach based on discrete sampling, we estimate parameters and trend functions. To evaluate the capability of this process, we use simulated sample paths of the model and examine the goodness of fit. Finally, we apply the process to fit and predict the total water productivity in Morocco.