Long-Term or Short-Term? Prediction of Ship Detention Duration Based on Machine Learning

The prevalence of ship deficiencies continues to be a significant issue. Data from the Tokyo Memorandum of Understanding reveals that ship detentions in 2023 surged by more than 80% compared with the previous year. The significant number of detained ships not only disrupts ships’ daily operations but also strains port resources, leading to increased additional costs. In light of this issue, predicting the duration of ship detention becomes crucial, as accurate predictions can assist port managers in resource allocation and provide shipping companies with critical information for operational planning. This study is the first to predict ship detention duration, specifically distinguishing between long-term and short-term detained ships. Initially, key deficiency types influencing the ship detention duration were identified using an improved entropy weight–grey relational analysis. Subsequently, in consideration of the imbalance in data distribution between long-term and short-term detentions, a random forest model capable of handling imbalanced data was applied to classify these two types. The study found that fire safety, propulsion and auxiliary machinery, and pollution prevention are the three most critical deficiency types impacting detention duration; and the random forest model sampled and processed from the data level possessed the best model performance, achieving prediction accuracies of 0.71, 0.72, and 0.85 for bulk carriers, containers, and oil tankers, respectively. This research offers a comprehensive analysis of ship detention duration, making a significant contribution to both the theoretical understanding and practical applications in the maritime industry. Accurately predicting ship detention duration provides valuable insights for stakeholders, enabling them to anticipate potential detention scenarios and thus supporting shipping companies in effective fleet management while assisting port authorities in the optimal allocation of berth resources.