Land-use change, no-net-loss policies, and effects on carbon dioxide removals

Net Change approaches substantially underestimate the impact of land use change on CDR and should be avoided. Component Change models highlight that avoided deforestation may provide up to twice the CDR benefits as increased afforestation-though preference for one policy over the other would require a cost assessment. The disparities in the CDR impacts of afforestation and deforestation indicate that no-net-loss policies could mitigate some CDR losses but would lead to overall declines in CDR for our 45-year time horizon. Over a much longer period afforestation could capture more of the losses from deforestation but at a timeframe inconsistent with most climate change policy efforts.