An approach to assessing tsunami risk to the global port network under rising sea levels

Abstract Seaports are vulnerable to extreme sea level events. Beyond physical damage, any port inoperability affects trade flows in and out of the affected port and disrupts shipping routes connected to it, which then propagates throughout the port network. Here, we propose an approach to assessing tsunami risk to ports and the global port network. We leverage on the topological properties of the global liner shipping network and centrality measures to quantify the potential impacts of a Manila Trench earthquake-tsunami under both present and future sea levels. We find that a Manila Trench tsunami could potentially damage up to 11 ports at present-day conditions and 15 ports under rising sea levels. Port closure could exceed 200 days and cause greater disruption to shipping routes than historical tsunami events. We also find that sea level rise is likely to result in uneven changes in tsunami heights spatially and hence, uneven impacts on the global port network.

Authors

Institutions

Publication Details

Journal
npj natural hazards.
Published
2024-12-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00039-2
Citations
6
Primary Topic
earthquake and tectonic studies
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.21

Funders

Controls
|||
ALL TIME
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
article

An approach to assessing tsunami risk to the global port network under rising sea levels

Anawat Suppasri, Takuro Otake, An-Chi Cheng, Constance Ting Chua et al.
6 citations
npj natural hazards.
earthquake and tectonic studies
3.21
article

An approach to assessing tsunami risk to the global port network under rising sea levels

Anawat Suppasri, Takuro Otake, An-Chi Cheng, Constance Ting Chua, Fumihiko Imamura, Adam D. Switzer, Tanghua Li, Qiang Qiu, Linlin Li
article en
6 citations

Abstract

Abstract Seaports are vulnerable to extreme sea level events. Beyond physical damage, any port inoperability affects trade flows in and out of the affected port and disrupts shipping routes connected to it, which then propagates throughout the port network. Here, we propose an approach to assessing tsunami risk to ports and the global port network. We leverage on the topological properties of the global liner shipping network and centrality measures to quantify the potential impacts of a Manila Trench earthquake-tsunami under both present and future sea levels. We find that a Manila Trench tsunami could potentially damage up to 11 ports at present-day conditions and 15 ports under rising sea levels. Port closure could exceed 200 days and cause greater disruption to shipping routes than historical tsunami events. We also find that sea level rise is likely to result in uneven changes in tsunami heights spatially and hence, uneven impacts on the global port network.

npj natural hazards.Vol. 1(1)
Sun Yat-sen University (CN), Nanyang Technological University (SG), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Tohoku University (JP), Institute of Oceanology (CN), South China Sea Institute Of Oceanology (CN), Earth Observatory of Singapore (SG)
National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Research Foundation, National Research Foundation Singapore, Ministry of Education - Singapore, Ministry of Education, India, Swiss Re, Earth Observatory of Singapore
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
earthquake and tectonic studies
3.21
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
AI Navigator

Ask Laika to Summarize, Analyze, and Connect papers live on the map.

Summarize Papers & Methodologies

Extract key findings, datasets, and comparative methods across publications.

Benchmark Rankings & Visual Analytics

Rank top research institutions, authors, funders, topics, and journals by Field-Weighted Citation Impact (FWCI) and paper volume with instant charts.

Connect Distant Disciplines

Bridge topological clusters on the map to find hidden collaborative intersections.