Advancing Heat Pump Adoption in Ukraine’s Low-Carbon Energy Transition

The European Union established a legislative framework to facilitate the transition to low-carbon energy sources. As Ukraine aspires to join the EU, it is progressively adopting similar legislation. The extensive damage to Ukraine’s fossil fuel-based heat generation infrastructure necessitates the reconstruction of heating and cooling supply systems, with a focus on low-carbon energy sources, particularly heat pumps. Notably, Poland achieved the highest growth in installed heat pump capacities in Europe, offering valuable insights for Ukraine’s energy transition. This study employs the TIMES-Ukraine model to assess the potential proliferation of heat pumps within the country. The findings suggest that, if capital costs for heat pumps decrease, their adoption could accelerate more rapidly than biomass-fired heating systems, particularly in urban single-family homes and buildings lacking central heating systems, over the next decade. While high investment costs may slightly diminish the attractiveness of this technology for space heating, heat pumps consistently outperform biomass heating appliances and potential biomethane-sourced gas boilers.