Factors to scale out innovative organic farming systems: A case study in Flanders region, Belgium

Sustainability transitions in agri-food systems are expected to reduce their negative environmental and social impacts. On the other hand, Europe demands an increase in the agricultural land under organic farming by 2030. Innovations in agri-food systems, especially in the organic sector, could close the gap in sustainability transitions and the foreseen conversion to organic farming. In this study, we developed a participatory agent-based model combined with qualitative scenarios to understand which factors play a role in scaling out innovations in the organic sector and further study potential scenarios in the region of Flanders, Belgium. Agent-based modeling is a computational simulation environment able to represent complex systems where relevant actors behave and interact with each other. This modeling approach can be combined with qualitative scenarios to elucidate potential futures for a specific context. A strong trend for innovative and organic food, available groups of consumers in public institutions for collaboration, subsidies to start up, and a robust farm network can help farms to adopt a sustainable innovative collaboration with public institutions. However, land availability in the Flemish context may restrain this scaling out of farm innovation. Combining agent-based models with qualitative scenarios in a participatory approach can integrate the expertise of different stakeholders for sustainability transitions. Pragmatically, it can illustrate how a sustainability transition may take place under potential scenarios. • Agent-based models can identify factors to scale out innovations. • A higher innovative organic food trend promotes collaborations in the value chain. • Flanders expects limited scaling out of innovative organic farms. • A scenario to connect local communities can encourage farms to collaborate.