Geographic distribution of single motherhood in Nigeria: 2003 – 2018

The prevalence of single motherhood, associated with adverse maternal and child health outcomes, is now increasing rapidly across Nigerian states. The distribution of single mothers could vary widely across geographical settings in highly heterogeneous Nigerian states with diverse sociocultural, religious, and ethnic beliefs, which are some of the drivers of parenting styles. Using cross-sectional data from four waves of the Nigeria Demographic Health Survey, we analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of single motherhood across Nigerian states. Within a Bayesian context, we considered a binomial likelihood for the single motherhood variable and included the categorical variables as linear effects. The metrical covariate, the age of the women, was modeled assuming a second-order random walk prior, while the state random effect was modeled using a Gaussian intrinsic conditional autoregressive prior. The findings indicate strong spatial clustering that shows a North-South divide over time, with high chances of single motherhood recorded in most southern states. These spatial distributions persisted after accounting for the observed covariates, indicating that the clustering serves as a proxy for other indicators that exert an unmatched influence on the prevalence of single motherhood across geographic settings. We found that Christian women are more prone to single motherhood compared with Muslim women. Similarly, educational attainment, household wealth index, urban residency, and ethnicity are predictors of single motherhood in Nigeria. Interventions to ease the burden of single motherhood in Nigeria could be more impactful if states in the southern fringe are given priority.