Response of Larix sibirica Radial Growth to Climate Change in Kanas, Northern Xinjiang, China

Understanding how forest ecosystems respond to climate variability is critical for predicting the impacts of climate change on semi-arid and temperate regions. This study examines the climatic drivers of radial growth in Larix sibirica Ledeb in the Kanas Lake region, northern Xinjiang, China, to explore how climate change may alter forest growth patterns. Using tree-ring chronologies, we examine the relationships between temperature, precipitation, and drought conditions, as well as the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on growth. Results indicate that high summer temperatures negatively affect tree growth, while adequate precipitation plays a crucial role in mitigating water stress, especially during key growth periods. Positive correlations with the Palmer Drought Severity Index further underscore the importance of long-term moisture availability. Moreover, the study highlights the role of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in influencing moisture transport, with significant correlations between sea surface temperatures in the Niño 4 region and tree-ring growth. Future growth simulations under two climate scenarios suggest that moderate warming (SSP 2–4.5) may enhance growth, while more extreme warming (SSP 5–8.5) introduces greater uncertainty and potential growth instability. These findings provide critical guidance for forest management strategies in the face of climate change.