Projection of glacier changes over the Laohugou Glacier No. 12, Northeast Tibetan Plateau, China from 2020 to 2100

Laohugou Glacier No. 12 in the Qilian Mountains, northeast Tibetan Plateau. Alpine glacier meltwater from the Qilian Mountains (QMs), northeast Tibetan Plateau, is the main source of water for the surrounding arid zones. Accurately reconstructing long-term mountain glacier mass balance (MB) and projecting glacier changes under climate warming are pivotal in cryospheric scientific research. In this study, Laohugou Glacier No. 12 (LHG12), in the western QMs, was selected as a study area. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models, the degree-day and glacier retreat models were used to predict the glacier changes under three scenarios for 2020–2100. From 2020–2100, the annual mass loss of LHG12 simulated using CanESM5 and EC-Earth3 which perform best increased compared to the measured data in the historical period (2010–2014) (i.e., annual MB of −0.26 m w.e) by a factor of 1.04 and 1.73 under SSP1–2.6, 4.62 and 4.88 under SSP3–7.0, and 6.23 and 7.15 times under SSP5–8.5. By 2100, the ice volume and area of LHG12 simulated using CanESM5 and EC-Earth3 reduced to 0.03×10 9 (1.6 %) and 0.01×10 9 (0.4 %) m 3 , 1.87 and 0.75 km 2 under SSP5–8.5, respectively. • Based on CMIP6 models, the degree-day and glacier retreat models were combined to predict changes in LHG12. • The area, volume, and thickness of LHG12 decreased under different emission scenarios. • By 2100, the southeastern part of LHG12 retained a larger area of glacier.