Integrating Convolutional Attention and Encoder–Decoder Long Short-Term Memory for Enhanced Soil Moisture Prediction

Soil moisture is recognized as a crucial variable in land–atmosphere interactions. This study introduces the Convolutional Attention Encoder–Decoder Long Short-Term Memory (CAEDLSTM) model to address the uncertainties and limitations inherent in traditional soil moisture prediction methods, especially in capturing complex temporal dynamics across diverse environmental conditions. Unlike existing approaches, this model integrates convolutional layers, an encoder–decoder framework, and multi-head attention mechanisms for the first time in soil moisture prediction. The convolutional layers capture local spatial features, while the encoder–decoder architecture effectively manages temporal dependencies. Additionally, the multi-head attention mechanism enhances the model’s ability to simultaneously focus on multiple key influencing factors, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of complex environmental variables. This synergistic combination significantly improves predictive performance, particularly in challenging climatic conditions. The model was validated using the LandBench1.0 dataset, which includes multiple high-resolution datasets, such as ERA5-land, ERA5 atmospheric variables, and SoilGrids, covering various climatic regions, including high latitudes, temperate zones, and tropical areas. The superior performance of the CAEDLSTM model is evidenced by comparisons with advanced models such as AEDLSTM, CNNLSTM, EDLSTM, and AttLSTM. Relative to the traditional LSTM model, CAEDLSTM achieved an average increase of 5.01% in R2, a 12.89% reduction in RMSE, a 16.67% decrease in bias, and a 4.35% increase in KGE. Moreover, it effectively addresses the limitations of traditional deep learning methods in challenging climates, including tropical Africa, the Tibetan Plateau, and Southeast Asia, resulting in significant enhancements in predictive accuracy within these regions, with R2 values improving by as much as 20%. These results underscore the capabilities of CAEDLSTM in capturing complex soil moisture dynamics, demonstrating its considerable potential for applications in agriculture and water resource monitoring across diverse climates.