Model Can Be Subtle: Two Important Mechanisms for Social Media Popularity Prediction

Social media popularity prediction is an important channel to explore content sharing and communication on social networks. It aims to capture informative cues by analyzing multi-type data (such as user profile, image, and text) to decide the popularity of a specified post. In this article, we divide social network users into two categories (i.e., active and inactive users) and find a dilemma in existing models: If an active user publishes the low-popularity post, the model will habitually predict the high score. On the contrary, if an inactive user provides the high-popularity post, the model still gives the low score incorrectly. Therefore, how to make the model more subtle to users is important. Comparing to existing methods that directly leverage multi-modal features for regression training, this article stresses more on two novel mechanisms. The first method aims to prevent the over-fitting on user IDs. We propose the attribute-sensitive interactive mechanism (M1) by incorporating explicit user-attribute and post-attribute interaction. It can analyze which type of features a user cares the most and weaken the model’s dependence on user IDs. The second method aims to strengthen the influence of post content. We propose the knowledge embedding mechanism (M2) to revise the popularity scores in existing models by fusing the statistical frequency over multi-type data. Note that both mechanisms are model-agnostic, which can be applicable in any popularity prediction model. Extensive experiments conducted on the Social Media Prediction Dataset further validate the effectiveness.