Assessing the impact of human activities and land use change on livestock depredation by large carnivores in Mexico

Human-carnivore conflicts, arising from the predation of domestic animals, contribute to global declines in carnivore populations, primarily due to retaliatory and preventative killings. Understanding the contextual factors that commonly lead to such conflicts is crucial for developing policies and strategies that mitigate economic losses for individuals and reduce human-caused mortality of carnivores. In this study, we used livestock predation insurance claim records filed in Mexico from 2017 to 2020, alongside potentially significant anthropogenic and landscape variables, to explore the relationship between the occurrence of livestock predations and the degree of disturbance or transformation of natural habitats across the country. Our findings reveal that predation sites were widespread throughout Mexico, but their distribution varied in relation to the degree of anthropogenic transformation of habitats. The occurrences of predation by jaguar, puma, and black bear were associated with landscape attributes indicative of anthropogenic changes, including urbanization, deforestation, habitat conversion to intensive agriculture, roads, cultivated pastures, and livestock density. We propose that classified model of anthropic variables can serve as an effective planning tool to identify, prioritize, and address the vulnerability of livestock to carnivores, providing a strategic framework for managing and mitigating human-carnivore conflicts.