Predicting Stream Flows and Dynamics of the Athabasca River Basin Using Machine Learning

Streamflow forecasting is of great importance in water resource management and flood warnings. Machine learning techniques can be utilized to assist with river flow forecasting. By analyzing historical time-series data on river flows, weather patterns, and other relevant factors, machine learning models can learn patterns and relationships to present predictions about future river flows. In this study, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was constructed to predict the monthly flows of the Athabasca River at three monitoring stations: Hinton, Athabasca, and Fort MacMurray in Alberta, Canada. The three monitoring stations upstream, midstream, and downstream were selected to represent the different climatological regimes of the Athabasca River. Time-series data were used for model training to identify patterns and correlations using moving averages, exponential smoothing, and Holt–Winters’ method. The model’s forecasting was compared against the observed data. The results show that the determination coefficients were 0.99 at all three stations, indicating strong correlations. The root mean square errors (RMSEs) were 26.19 at Hinton, 61.1 at Athabasca, and 15.703 at Fort MacMurray, respectively, and the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) were 0.34%, 0.44%, and 0.14%, respectively. Therefore, the ARIMA model captured the seasonality patterns and trends in the stream flows at all three stations and demonstrated a robust performance for hydrological forecasting. This provides insights and predictions for water resource management and flood warnings.