Mesodynamic Model of Conflict in Traffic Flow

This article considers the possibility of applying the method of mathematical regression analysis to assess the level of conflict on public roads by approximating data on the state of the environment. As an initial material the study of parameters of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and solar activity on the UDS in a unified system of calculation is proposed. The selected parameters have a direct impact on the condition of drivers and traffic conditions. Environmental factors are known to influence the probability of traffic accidents, but there are no mathematical tools to describe such conditions and quantitative values. The presented model, based on the analysis of the above data, is designed to solve this problem. Based on the results of the conducted work, a mathematical model is developed and its statistical significance is confirmed through the use of F-criterion. The article discusses the possibility of applying the method of mathematical regression analysis to assess the level of conflict on public roads by approximating data on the state of the external environment. As an initial material the study of parameters of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind speed and solar activity on the roadway in a unified system of calculation is proposed. The model developed on the basis of the analysis of these data has statistical significance.