Characteristics and Machine Learning Emulation of Heatwaves in Future Climate of New Jersey - Exploring Data from the CMIP6 Archive

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase the duration and intensity of heatwaves with densely populated states being greatly susceptible to their effects. With a geographical focus on New Jersey, we use climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data archive focusing on future climate in the ScenarioMIP Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for the time period 2015–2100 to quantify future heatwave events, finding that the number, intensity, and other characteristics of heatwaves depend sensitively on climate state. We explored the underlying climate drivers using a machine-learning based emulator, with the best skill obtained using Random Forest and Ridge Regression methods. The resulting emulators show a strong sensitivity to carbon dioxide but a weaker dependency on methane. The outcomes of this study offer valuable insight for further research and policy formation for climate change mitigation and adaptation.