Spatial–Temporal Differentiation and Driving Factors of Vegetation Landscape Pattern in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on the ESTARFM Model

Urbanization and industrialization have led to obvious changes in the ecological environment and landscape pattern in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. Therefore, it is crucial to clarify the spatial–temporal changes in vegetation cover and its landscape pattern and conduct its analysis with the driving factors for ecological preservation in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. This study combined AVHRR GIMMS NDVI and MODIS NDVI data based on the ESTARFM model to obtain a high spatial–temporal resolution for vegetation cover; it then analyzed the vegetation cover changes at the type and landscape scales using a landscape index and explored the driving factors of the landscape pattern through principal component analysis. The results show that (1) the vegetation is mainly of medium and higher coverage and is distributed in the northeast, the western part of the Taihang Mountains and the central plains in the study area. From 1985 to 2022, there was no statistically significant difference in the overall change in its coverage. (2) From 1985 to 2022, at the landscape level, the vegetation cover landscape exhibited the following characteristics: increased fragmentation, an increase in the complexity of the landscape shape, a decrease in connectivity, a discrete landscape and a decrease in species diversity. At the type level, the medium vegetation demonstrated the most significant degree of fragmentation. The high-vegetation-cover areas exhibited a more concentrated distribution. Additionally, the low, lower and higher vegetation types displayed an increase in complexity, shape, discreteness and heterogeneity within the landscape. (3) Meanwhile, the principal component analysis showed that the changes in the landscape pattern of vegetation cover were mainly the result of the combined effects of climatic and anthropogenic factors in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The human factor played the dominant role; this was followed by larger contributions from climatic factors. In addition to offering pertinent scientific insights for the maximization of the ecological environment and the fostering of regional ecological and sustainable development in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, the aforementioned analysis and research could serve as the foundation for the sustainable management and planning of vegetation cover.