The contribution of the institutional environment to the development of the region's entrepreneurial ecosystem

Subject. The article addresses entrepreneurial ecosystems of regions, structural components of the institutional environment as determinants of the entrepreneurial activity growth. Objectives. The focus is the formation of a forecast model of entrepreneurial activity in regions, considering the factors of institutional environment of the ecosystem. Methods. The research rests on structural and comparative analysis, prediction by regression analysis of machine learning. We formed empirical database describing the factors of the institutional environment of regional entrepreneurship in 85 regions of Russia for 2018–2023. Results. The paper analyzes entrepreneurial activity in regions and identified ones with more or less active growth in the number of registered enterprises. We created five regression models enabling, based on spatial distribution, to predict the growth of entrepreneurial activity in Russian regions, in view of the impact of institutional environment factors. Conclusions. Special economic zones, clusters, formal and informal institutions, acceleration programs and business incubators, and high educational potential in the technical field have a beneficial effect on the growth of entrepreneurial activity. Institutional support during the pre-pandemic period had a decisive impact. In the post-pandemic period, the importance of accelerators and incubators increased for the growth of the number of enterprises in the region.