The Response of Runoff to Land Use Change in the Northeastern Black Soil Region, China

With the intensification of climate change and human activities, the impacts of land use shifts on hydrological processes are becoming more pronounced, especially in regions with complex geographic, geological, and climatic conditions such as the Northeast Black Soil Region, China. This study quantitatively examines the variations in various land use types from 1980 to 2020 by means of a land use transfer matrix, and it incorporates the multi-year average runoff value to mitigate the interference of short-term climate fluctuations on the runoff trend, thereby enhancing the representativeness and stability of the simulation outcomes. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model is employed to simulate land use alterations in different periods. The findings indicate that the area of farmland increased by 5.34% and the area of grassland decreased by 5.36% over 40 years. The areas of forest land and wetland have fluctuated significantly due to policy interventions and population growth. This study discovers that LUCC has resulted in a marginal increase in annual water yield. For instance, the water yield of paddy fields in 2020 amounts to 92.26 mm/year, which is 0.52–9.42% higher than the historical scenario and exhibits a notable upward trend in summer. Spatial analysis discloses regional disparities, with substantial changes in the hydrological behavior of northern watersheds (such as the Huma River) and southeastern regions (such as the Toudao River). The augmentation of wetland and forest coverage has effectively mitigated peak runoff, especially during extreme rainfall events. Wetlands have manifested strong water regulation capabilities and alleviated the impact of floods. This study quantitatively discloses the complex response pattern of LUCC to runoff by introducing a multi-scale analysis approach, which furnishes a scientific basis for flood risk assessment, land use optimization, and water resource management, and demonstrates the potential for extensive application in other countries and regions with similar climatic and topographic conditions.