Integrating geomechanical proxy models with data assimilation for energy transition applications

This study presents a method to address the significant uncertainties in subsurface modeling that impact the efficiency of energy transition applications such as geothermal energy extraction and CO 2 geological storage. The approach combines a physics-based geomechanical proxy model with an ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA), aimed at enhancing uncertainty quantification through the integration of vertical displacement measurements from fluid production and injection. The data from wells is limited in spatial coverage, while these measurements offer extensive spatial information, improving the understanding of subsurface behavior by reflecting changes in reservoir pressure and temperature. The open-DARTS simulator for fluid flow and a geomechanical proxy are used to perform data assimilation with ES-MDA. By generating an ensemble of model realizations with varied permeability, calculating vertical displacements at the surface, and applying ES-MDA, we effectively identify the probability distribution of the vertical displacement of the model conditioned to observed subsidence data. Entropy is used as a statistical measure to quantify the reduction of uncertainty of subsurface models based on observations. Our approach was tested on a 2D conceptual and 3D realistic datasets, demonstrating its capability to provide data assimilation. This workflow represents an advancement in subsurface modeling, supporting informed decision-making in geothermal energy production and CO 2 sequestration by offering an improved alternative for data assimilation and enhancing tools for uncertainty quantification. • The developed geomechanical proxy model provides an approximate solution for the subsidence problem. • The geomechanical proxy model allows to designate between poroelastic and thermoelastic effects. • ES-MDA provides a tool for assimilation of subsidence data in CO2 sequestration and geothermal applications.