Assessing and implementing a test, trace, isolate and face mask-wearing programme to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Queretaro, Mexico: a mathematical modelling approach

Abstract Non-pharmacological interventions stood as the only severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) morbidity and mortality mitigation tools before vaccines were made available. Some, such as strict “stay-at-home” strategies, posed significant adherence, compliance and sustainability challenges because of social, economic, and psychological factors. Following relaxation of strict social distancing measures, Test, trace and isolate (TTI) strategies sought to mitigate viral spread via self-isolation and quarantine through early detection of infectious people. Mathematical modelling can contribute insight into emergency responses by examining possible scenarios and their impact on morbidity, mortality and public health system capacity. This paper describes the use of mathematical modelling to assess the impact of a test, trace, isolate and face mask-wearing programme to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Queretaro. This model was developed by Oxford University and implemented during the COVID-19 emergency to inform the Health Security Committee in Queretaro. Describing the implementation of mathematical modelling in the field may be valuable to strengthen preparedness and response plans for other potential future pandemics.