Epidemiological Survey of Canine Distemper Virus Infection: Exploring the Link Between Virus Spread and Invasive Raccoon (<i>Procyon lotor</i>) Population Growth in Hokkaido, Japan

Invasive raccoons (Procyon lotor) naturalized in Hokkaido, Japan, potentially spreading infectious diseases. Canine distemper virus infection is a serious epizootic disease, for which the raccoon is one of the hosts. We investigated the virus's prevalence in Hokkaido's wild raccoons, using 611 serum samples collected from captured raccoons in 2007-2012, 2021, and 2022. Higher seropositivity rates were confirmed in 2007 (32.7%), 2021 (46.4%), and 2022 (46.8%) than in 2008-2012 (0.00%-6.06%), suggesting the occurrence of an epidemic in 2007, 2021, and 2022 and its disappearance in 2008-2012. However, the infection status has recently changed, with high seropositivity rates consecutively confirmed in 2021 and 2022. Logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the relationships among the catch per unit effort (an index of animal population density), host and environmental factors, and antibody status. The catch per unit effort correlated with seropositivity in 2007. As for environmental factors, the forest area ratio had a weak influence on seroprevalence in 2007; however, the residential area ratio had a clear influence on seroprevalence in 2021 and 2022. The epidemic occurred in forested areas in 2007; nonetheless, recent raccoon population growth and habitat expansion may have caused widespread infections even around residential areas in 2021 and 2022. Continuous monitoring of the infection and reinforcement of raccoon control programs are necessary to avoid serious damage through disease transmission to sympatric native raccoon dog (Nyctereutes procyonoides) and fox (Vulpes vulpes) populations, as well as health consequences for domestic dogs (Canis familiaris).