Determinants Generating General Purpose Technologies in Economic Systems: A New Method of Analysis and Economic Implications

This research proposes using the fishbone diagram, a visualization tool for constructing a comprehensive theoretical framework to analyze the sources of innovation. Traditionally employed to identify causes of specific events, the fishbone diagram is applied innovatively to explore the root causes driving the emergence and evolution of General Purpose Technologies (GPTs). The study identifies critical driving forces such as increased democratization, population growth, demographic shifts, significant investments in research and development (R&D), global leadership aspirations among major powers, competitive socioeconomic environments, and potential threats from adversarial actors. By visually representing these drivers, the fishbone diagram offers insights crucial for technological analysis and foresight, illuminating groundbreaking innovations that drive technological and economic progress. Illustrated through examples from historical GPTs like the steam engine and contemporary technologies such as Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), this study establishes a foundational framework for developing precise hypotheses about the specific causes and socio-economic impacts of GPTs. The fishbone diagram emerges as a versatile tool adept at systematically analyzing the complex root causes associated with GPTs, facilitating foresight and strategic management of these transformative innovations within society.