Dynamics of Winning the Referendums: The Effects of Campaign Intensity and Referendum Issue

Why do governments put some of their proposals to the popular vote despite the uncertainties about the referendum results? Furthermore, under which conditions do they have a better chance of winning in referendums. This study argues that some variables related to the issues put to referendum and the campaigns conducted are more influential in determining the referendum outcome than structural conditions such as the economic situation and the quality of democracy. It has three hypotheses. First, the higher the intensity of campaigning by the parties in the referendum, the lower the probability that the government proposal will be approved. Second, the higher the level of complexity of the package put to a referendum, the lower the probability of approval. Third, if voters already have strong predispositions on the issue being voted on, the results of the referendum resemble the results of general elections, i.e. it is easier to predict the outcome of the referendum. These hypotheses will be evaluated by making a qualitative comparison of the campaigns in Türkiye’s 2007, 2010, and 2017 referendums.