Forecasting Chinas Monetary Over-Issuance After the Pandemic Based on ARIMA Model and Exponential Smoothing Model

The excessive issuance of a country's currency will lead to the decline of the purchasing power of the currency and the rise of prices, which will lead to the reduction of the living standard of the people and the widening of the gap between the rich and the poor. In order to ensure the economic growth rate after the epidemic, most countries choose to issue more currency, and China's currency issue is particularly serious. This paper aims to predict the Monetary Over-issuance (MOI) in China after the epidemic by means of time series analysis. In this experiment, some basic time series model prediction methods such as ARIMA model and exponential smoothing model were used to predict the MOI situation in China in the post-epidemic era, aiming to explore the impact of the epidemic on China's MOI. The forecast results show that the Chinese government's stimulus actions for economic phenomena such as the decrease of GDP growth caused by the epidemic have increased China's MOI, and compared with before the epidemic, China's MOI will still maintain a steady growth in the future.