U.S. Dollar Activeness Forecasting: Application of the Seasonal ARIMA Model

This article selects the US Dollar Activeness as the research object, and through the study, it predicts the US Dollar Activeness 12 months later. It also attempts to analyze the reasons for the fluctuations of the US Dollar Activeness at different stages. The US Dollar Activeness holds a high position in the international currency market, and its fluctuations can reflect the strength or weakness of the US dollar and the health of the economy. In the prediction process, this article introduces the ARIMA model to predict the future trend of the US Dollar Activeness and tries to identify its influencing factors. By using the seasonal ARIMA model, a forecast chart of the US Dollar Activeness for the next 12 months was obtained. The US Dollar Activeness is likely to maintain its strength in the short term, but there are still uncertainties. Predicting the US Dollar Index can influence future exchange rate fluctuations and monetary policy formulation, as it reflects the value of the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies, exerting a broad impact on global financial markets and economic activities.