Analyzing The Dynamics Of Tourist Inflows: A Comparative Examination Of Patterns Across Selected Balkan Nations

Objective: This study employs time series analysis to examine the factors influencing fluctuations in tourist arrivals within a certain timeframe (2005-2021) across a chosen set of Western Balkan nations. Theoretical Framework: The countries that have been chosen for this study are Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and Greece. These nations exhibit distinct attributes in terms of their socio-economic development patterns; nonetheless, they share commonalities in terms of their coastal topography and cultural heritage influences. The empirical literature indicates that factors such as income and prices play a crucial role in determining the demand for tourism arrivals. Method: In this study, GMM models will be employed to analyze the relationship between the number of tourist arrivals and international tourism receipts. The models will incorporate various independent variables, including GDP growth rate, consumer price index, exchange rate, transportation costs, and other pertinent factors associated with tourism infrastructure. Results and Discussion: Based on our estimation results, we have observed small variations among countries, indicating a relatively low amount of price elasticity. Nevertheless, when considering Balkan countries, it is shown that income level and currency rates hold greater significance. Research Implications: The shared aims highlight that all the countries in the research have equal starting points and potential. Sharing shared objectives and being cognizant of their geographical character enhances the efficiency of the sector, enables the resolution of national-level inequalities, and facilitates cross-country cooperation. Originality/Value: The findings imply that the logistic performance has a favorable impact in every country case, except for Albania. The result might have an impact on policy considering the crucial function of logistics and infrastructure in tourism development.