NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0: a novel hybrid nonlinear data assimilation system for improved simulation of PM _2.5 chemical components

Abstract. Identifying PM2.5 chemical components is crucial for formulating emission strategies, estimating radiative forcing, and assessing human health effects. However, accurately describing spatiotemporal variations in PM2.5 chemical components remains a challenge. In our earlier work, we developed an aerosol extinction coefficient data assimilation (DA) system (Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (NAQPMS-PDAF) v1.0) that was suboptimal for chemical components. This paper introduces a novel hybrid nonlinear chemical DA system (NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0) to accurately interpret key chemical components (SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, OC, and EC). NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 improves upon v1.0 by effectively handling and balancing stability and nonlinearity in chemical DA, which is achieved by incorporating the non-Gaussian distribution ensemble perturbation and hybrid localized Kalman–nonlinear ensemble transform filter with an adaptive forgetting factor for the first time. The dependence tests demonstrate that NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 provides excellent DA results with a minimal ensemble size of 10, surpassing previous reports and v1.0. A 1-month DA experiment shows that the analysis field generated by NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 is in good agreement with observations, especially in reducing the underestimation of NH4+ and NO3- and the overestimation of SO42-, OC, and EC. In particular, the Pearson correlation coefficient (CORR) values for NO3-, OC, and EC are above 0.96, and the R2 values are above 0.93. NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 also demonstrates superior spatiotemporal interpretation, with most DA sites showing improvements of over 50 %–200 % in CORR and over 50 %–90 % in RMSE for the five chemical components. Compared to the poor performance in the global reanalysis dataset (CORR: 0.42–0.55, RMSE: 4.51–12.27 µg m−3) and NAQPMS-PDAF v1.0 (CORR: 0.35–0.98, RMSE: 2.46–15.50 µg m−3), NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 has the highest CORR of 0.86–0.99 and the lowest RMSE of 0.14–3.18 µg m−3. The uncertainties in ensemble DA are also examined, further highlighting the potential of NAQPMS-PDAF v2.0 for advancing aerosol chemical component studies.