Carbon Storage Simulation and Land Use Optimization for High-Water-Table Resource-Based Cities Based on the Coupled GMOP-PLUS-InVEST Model

Exploring land use evolution and its impact on carbon storage is crucial for mitigating climate change in resource-based cities and promoting green, low-carbon development. This study constructs a GMOP-PLUS-InVEST coupled model and utilizes remote sensing data from five phases of land use from 2000 to 2020. Four scenarios are established to simulate the future patterns of land use and carbon storage changes in Jining City. The results indicate that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, farmland, forest land, and grassland in Jining City show a declining trend; while construction and waters increase, resulting in a reduction of carbon storage from 167.35 × 10⁶ t in 2000 to 159.85 × 10⁶ t in 2020; (2) coal mining significantly influences nearby land utilization types and carbon storage, leading to a decline in nearby carbon reserves; (3) compared to the other three scenarios, the coordinated development scenario exhibits higher land use efficiency and carbon storage, with lower levels of human disturbance; balancing the local economy and environment, and serving as a sustainable pattern of land use for the area. The outcomes of this paper quantitatively reflect the relationship between land use, coal mining, and carbon storage in high-water-level resource-based cities; providing guidance for the local economy, urban development, and ecological environment protection.