Impact of Land Use Change on Carbon Storage in Complex Terrains: A Case Study of Sichuan–Chongqing, China

Understanding human activity and global climate change requires an understanding of the impact of land-use change on carbon storage. Nevertheless, the number of studies examining carbon storage in complex terrain areas remains relatively limited. This study quantified land use shifts and carbon storage variations from 2010 to 2030 in the Sichuan–Chongqing region in China by combining InVEST and PLUS models. The results show that (1) the Sichuan–Chongqing region exhibits a predominantly concentrated pattern of land utilization, with forests occupying a dominant position among various land types in the locality. (2) The total carbon storage loss between 2010 and 2020 is 24.19 Tg. Except for the ecological development scenario, compared to 2020, all multi-scenario projections show less carbon storage in 2030. (3) The primary cause of carbon loss is the sprawl of built-up areas into farmlands, forests, and grasslands. (4) The geomorphology of complex terrain greatly affects carbon storage; flat terrain tends to be less carbon-intensive than more steeply sloping terrain. This study offers worthwhile insights for sustainable land management and carbon mitigation strategies in complex terrains worldwide.