A machine-learned model for predicting weight loss success using weight change features early in treatment

Stepped-care obesity treatments aim to improve efficiency by early identification of non-responders and adjusting interventions but lack validated models. We trained a random forest classifier to improve the predictive utility of a clinical decision rule (>0.5 lb weight loss/week) that identifies non-responders in the first 2 weeks of a stepped-care weight loss trial (SMART). From 2009 to 2021, 1058 individuals with obesity participated in three studies: SMART, Opt-IN, and ENGAGED. The model was trained on 80% of the SMART data (224 participants), and its in-distribution generalizability was tested on the remaining 20% (remaining 57 participants). The out-of-distribution generalizability was tested on the ENGAGED and Opt-IN studies (472 participants). The model predicted weight loss at month 6 with an 84.5% AUROC and an 86.3% AUPRC. SHAP identified predictive features: weight loss at week 2, ranges/means and ranges of weight loss, slope, and age. The SMART-trained model showed generalizable performance with no substantial difference across studies.