Can American pressure change China?

Abstract This essay explores the ongoing strategic debate in the U.S. regarding whether to increase pressure on China to change its behavior or governance. It critiques the “maximum pressure” strategy advocated by some analysts and former officials, which draws inspiration from the Cold War tactics used against the Soviet Union. The essay argues that such a strategy is unlikely to succeed and could lead to unintended consequences, including war. It highlights the historical inaccuracies in comparing the current U.S.-China rivalry to the Cold War, noting that the Soviet Union's collapse was not solely due to U.S. pressure but also internal systemic failures. The article concludes that a strategy focused on coercive pressure may trigger a dangerous backlash from China. It stresses the importance of managing the rivalry in a way that acknowledges the limits of American influence.