Integrating human behaviour and epidemiological modelling: unlocking the remaining challenges
Historically, responses to health-related emergencies (whether public health, veterinary health or plant health related) have exposed the deficiencies of mathematical models to incorporate data-driven and/or theoretical knowledge on outbreak behavioural dynamics. Interdisciplinary collaboration is vital to improve realism in methodological approaches to considering behavioural dynamics in an unfolding situation. We must bring together novel ideas across the behavioural, biological, data and mathematical sciences. The purpose of our article is threefold. We first present our perspective on the vital role of interdisciplinary collaboration to enable the effective integration of the dynamics of human behaviour and epidemiological models - we refer to such integrated models as “epidemiological-behavioural” models. We then summarise issues to be resolved by interdisciplinary teams of experts within four contemporary epidemiological-behavioural modelling challenge areas that we consider to require immediate and sustained research attention: understanding of human behaviour; data; modelling methodologies and parameterisation; how modelling (and communication of its findings) affects behaviour. Lastly, to serve as a resource for research scientists, practitioners and policy makers interested in getting involved in tackling these epidemiological-behavioural modelling challenges, we pose recommendations to make progress in each of the challenge areas and our viewpoint on their potential societal benefits if enacted.
Authors
- Alice E. Milne (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4509-0578)
- Fanqi Zeng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2233-5947)
- Emily Nixon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1626-9296)
- Stephen Parnell (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2625-4557)
- David Haw (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9228-0542)
- Martine J. Barons (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1483-2943)
- Edward M. Hill (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2992-2004)
- Kirsty J. Bolton (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0487-4701)
- Kavita Vedhara (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9940-7534)
- MichaelF. Lynch
- Ruth McCabe (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6368-9103)
- Matthew Ryan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2373-4384)
- Matthew S. Turner (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3441-678X)
Institutions
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (GB)
- University of Nottingham (GB)
- University of Liverpool (GB)
- Rothamsted Research (GB)
- University of Warwick (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool (GB)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Cardiff University (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Mathematics in Medical and Life Sciences
- Published
- 2024-11-29
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1080/29937574.2024.2429479
- Citations
- 6
- Primary Topic
- COVID-19 epidemiological studies
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.37
Funders
- Wellcome Trust
- National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit
- Royal Society
- Sight Research UK
- University of Warwick
- Medical Research Council
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
- Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
- Natural Environment Research Council
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
- Horizon 2020