Impact of climate change on cropping and land use pattern in Ramanathapuram district: A Markov chain analysis

Examining shifts in cropping and land use patterns is crucial for gaining better insights into agricultural development strategies. The present study was undertaken to investigate the dynamics of cropping patterns and land use patterns in the Ramanathapuram district of Tamil Nadu from 2004 to 2023, using Transitional Probability Matrices (TPM) to analyze changes across two distinct periods: 2004-2013 (Period I) and 2014-2023 (Period II). The results revealed significant changes in both land use patterns and crop stability. Forest retention dropped sharply from 89% in Period I to 18% in Period II, with substantial transitions to non-agricultural uses, while barren land retention decreased from 96% to 11%. Pasture retention declined from 91% to 28%, reflecting reduced grazing areas. Conversely, the retention of culturable wasteland increased to 100% and land under tree crops showed improved stability. Regarding cropping patterns, paddy remained the most stable crop, with 72% and 76% retention rates in Periods I and II, respectively. Sorghum and green gram showed instability during the first period, though sorghum's stability improved in the second period, while green gram remained unstable. These findings indicate a trend toward diversification in cropping patterns and land use. The study highlights the influence of urbanization pressures, intensified agricultural activities and shifts in crop choice, offering valuable insights into land management strategies and developmental trends within the district.