Research on Probability of Discharge in Emergency Departments Based on Stochastic Timed Petri Nets and Machine Learning

Currently, factors such as hidden health hazards, unhealthy lifestyles, and environmental pollution have led to the frequent occurrence of diseases, causing a common problem - a sharp increase in hospital admissions. However, for emergency departments (EDs), their medical resources and scale are insufficient to meet the challenges of this conventional hospital level. Thus, modeling the diagnostic process of the ED, and applying an appropriate method to predict the probability of discharges within a certain time, is of significant importance for achieving rational resource allocation. Effective allocation of medical resources can ensure that patients receive timely and effective medical care, improve the quality and level of medical services, and thereby enhance patient satisfaction with medical care. Therefore, the modeling tool for this paper is stochastic timed Petri nets (STPN), in order to more accurately simulate various random events and delays that occur within the ED. Additionally, for better analysis of the model, we will convert the time interval values assigned to transitions into time interval values assigned to places, creating a Petri net known as TSdPN. Using Net learning method to predict patient discharge probabilities helps healthcare providers allocate beds, resources, and follow-up medical services more accurately, thereby improving the efficiency of medical resource utilization. Combining these two approaches makes ED operations more intelligent and efficient, providing patients with a better quality medical experience.