Comparison of stable carotid plaques in patients with mild-to-moderate carotid stenosis with vulnerable plaques in patients with significant carotid stenosis

To compare the characteristics of stable and vulnerable carotid plaques, and investigate the diagnostic performance of wall shear stress (WSS) based on magnetic resonance plaque imaging in carotid plaques. Retrospectively analyzed and divided 64 atherosclerotic plaques into stable carotid plaque groups with mild-to-moderate stenosis and vulnerable carotid plaque groups with significant stenosis. Computational fluid dynamics simulations were performed to calculate WSS parameters by using three-dimensional wall geometry based on high-resolution magnetic resonance plaque imaging of carotid bifurcation and patient specific boundary conditions obtained through color Doppler ultrasound. WSS parameters including upstream (WSSup), downstream (WSSdown), and core (WSScore) of plaque. The WSS parameters values were compared between the stable and vulnerable carotid plaque groups. Receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curve (ROC-AUC) and Python were used to evaluate discriminative efficacy of WSS. WSSdown exhibited significant decrease in the vulnerable carotid plaque group (2.88 ± 0.41 Pa) compared to the stable carotid plaque group (4.47 ± 0.84 Pa) (P = .003). The difference of WSSup (3.28 ± 0.85 Pa vs 4.02 ± 0.74 Pa) and WSScore (1.12 ± 0.18 Pa vs 1.38 ± 0.38 Pa) between the two groups were also pronounced (P = .02, 0.01, respectively). The ROC-AUC values for WSSup, WSSdown, WSScore were 0.75 (95% CI, 0.58-0.93), 0.96 (95% CI, 0.79-1.14), 0.69 (95% CI, 0.56-0.83) respectively. When the value of WSSdown was 3.5 Pa, the sensitivity was 93.7% (95% CI, 76.1-111), specificity and accuracy was 87.5% (95% CI, 70.0-105), 88.4% (95% CI, 70.6-105) respectively. Notably, among these parameters, WSSdown demonstrated the highest discriminative efficiency with a F1 Score of 0.90, Diagnostic Odds Ratio of 105.0 and Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.81. Vulnerable carotid plaques with significant stenosis have lower WSS compared to stable plaques with mild-to-moderate stenosis, and downstream WSS showing the highest diagnostic efficacy.