Analyzing dropout intentions in vocational education and training: exploring the nexus between different dimensions of dropout reasons and the different directions of dropout intention

Abstract Extensive research has focused on various dimensions of dropout reasons, yet it often overlooks the importance of considering different dropout directions in the analysis. Our cross-sectional study examines the association of factors of six dimensions of dropout reasons (learner, professional, company, school, activity, and context) with four directions of dropout intention (upwards, downwards, horizontal: occupational change, and horizontal: company change). Stepwise regression analyses using dropout intention as a prior inner condition (before actual dropout behavior) with data from 559 industrial and office management trainees in Germany are conducted. Results indicate that the largest association across different directions of dropout intentions is exerted by the trainees’ occupational identity (professional dimension) and the year in training (context dimension). School factors like the use of outdated teaching equipment and learner factors like trainees’ high professional commitment predict upward dropouts, while a low level of trainees’ workplace social involvement (activity dimension) predicts downward dropouts. Company factors like unfavourable working regulations predict occupational change, and a low level of trainees’ functional involvement (activity dimension) predicts company change. Additionally, we confirm the previously found significant associations of activity and professional factors, particularly the cooperation between learning venues (school and training company) and the alignment between training and the desired occupation. The desired occupation predicts dropout intentions in the upward and horizontal direction (occupational change), and a low level of learning venue cooperation predicts the upward, horizontal (company change), and downward directions. To mitigate dropout rates, we recommend that vocational education and training stakeholders adopt preventive strategies by targeting specific directions of dropout intentions and the factors associated with the six dimensions of dropout reasons.