Why Emigration Is Costly for Incumbents: the Case of El Salvador

El Salvador has the most popular president in Latin America, even as Salvadorans continue to migrate to the United States in high numbers. While emigration can serve as a safety valve that benefits incumbents, it also reflects a rejection of the status quo, producing a signal that negatively affects presidential popularity. This paper uses a survey of a nationally represented sample of Salvadorans with an embedded experiment. Respondents are primed on the number of apprehensions of Salvadorans attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, which highlights the costly decision to leave El Salvador. The survey results show that emigration reduces presidential approval and generates pessimism about the status quo. Information about migrant apprehensions also negatively affects prospective outlooks over one’s personal economy. The study underscores how emigration can negatively affect incumbents despite the long-term political and economic benefits emigration may bring.